Game 3

And so there will be a Game 3. As much as I hate to admit it, I was wrong with my prediction. Well, it was a blowout, alright; except that it was Ateneo on the wrong side of it. So where did it all go wrong? The laconic me would proffer only three words: law of averages. UE waxed hot in the 2nd half and Ateneo couldn't keep up. Case in point: Espiritu kept on hitting jumpers with Baclao right on his face.

But the critic in me knows better. Even if UE was on fire, the game could've been won (and my 460 bucks would've been worth it). So here's a breakdown of what went wrong and what needs to be done come Thursday:

1. Eric Salamat is a choker. The former NCAA juniors MVP is averaging a measly 3 ppg in the 4 Finals games he has appeared in since last year. For the season, he is the only other Blue Eagle who is averaging double-digits and was even named PSBank Maaasahan Player of the Season. In fact, he is the main reason why Ateneo had been so dominant during the eliminations--he filled in the shoes of Chris Tiu nicely. But the Finals has been a different story for him. If Ateneo are to dominate Game 3, they need him to be his usual self. We need to see more penetrations. He can't rely on outside shots if he's on a slump. He needs to draw fouls to manufacture points. Show us those mile-high salutes again!

2. Not enough isolations for Ryan Buenafe. This guy is a scoring machine. Just give him the ball and he will drive, draw contact, and finish. He is like Danny Seigle without a consistent outside shot. Problem is, he doesn't have the green light from Norman. You see him playing point forward most of the time but he ends up dribbling the ball and running down the clock, without making anything happen. What we need to see him do more is drive to the basket and either go for the shot or dish to an open teammate--because he is not only a scorer, he is also an underrated passer. This way he can create plays instead of just dribbling idly. Also, UE sometimes matches him up with Paul Lee, a guy who is at least 2 inches shorter than him. We need to see him post up and exploit the mismatch. And oh, not enough minutes for him, too. Austria and Long are eating on his minutes a tad too much, Mr. Black.

3. Lackadaisical defense. The Game 2 loss was not just about UE waxing hot, it was also about Ateneo playing poor defense. They had trouble fighting through screens, the help-defense was a step too slow, and the interior defense was soft. The Eagles gave up way too many layups. I remember a fastbreak play where Monfort tried to take the charge instead of giving up a hard foul, and ended up getting called for the block on an and-1 play. Way too soft. Don't let the refs try to bail you out.

4. Way too many 3-point attempts and, I hate to say this, not enough touches for Al-Hussaini down low. Ateneo jacked up around 30 threes in the loss, which is too much. The Eagles didn't dominate the season because of 3-point shooting, so there's absolutely no need to rely on it that much. Sure, Ateneo is amongst the league-leaders in 3-point field goal percentage, but shooting 3s is not Ateneo's game. They do not live and die with the 3. Ateneo's game is to dump the ball to Rabeh and score points from the paint. Of course credit goes to UE for good defense down low, but Rabeh should be able to get some touches in the paint and get UE's bigs into foul trouble. The thing is, Rabeh is settling for outside shots, and although he is making most of them, is not the way to take control of the game.

5. Stagnant offense. I know Ateneo's game is basically a half-court set. The problem in Game 2 is that the players just stand on the floor waiting for the pass. We need to see more cutters. Also, Ateneo needs to run a bit more. Fastbreak points were virtually non-existent in the loss. And this is from a team that has good fastbreak finishers and bigs who run the break well. We need to speed it up a bit.

6. The five on the floor forgot about the 6th men. We didn't see enough emotions last Sunday. The team didn't try to get the Ateneo faithful into it. Everybody wearing blue wanted the balloons to fall that day. The team should've shown that they wanted it, too. That they wanted it badly. Bring out the guns and the salutes this Thursday. And the Blue Crew will cheer you on like the game is the only thing that matters. Like the Sesqui celebration is not complete without the UAAP basketball crown. Oh, I can feel the drumbeat right now... Go Ateneo!

I am still predicting an Ateneo win this Thursday... as a belated birthday gift. Dare I say by 25, on my 25th.

Hot Ticket

With the UAAP Finals about to tip off in a couple of minutes, I just want to give my two cents' worth. First off, people (guys from Hard Ball, in particular) are always saying that UE is the hottest team in the league right now. A fallacy. UE has won 8 straight. Ateneo has won 11 consecutive. So how do you define "hottest"? Second, people keep bringing back the ghost of 2006, when Ateneo, then the #1 seed, lost to the #3 seed UST. They say that Ateneo was a heavy favorite then. I beg to differ. The 2006 team was good, but it was not dominant. I admit that I was surprised that Ateneo performed very well that season. Be reminded that that team lost to UST in the 2nd round; so the Finals defeat wasn't a rabbit out of the hat. The King Eagles were JC Intal, Doug Kramer, and Macky Escalona. Not exactly legends in college hoops. Meanwhile, UST, although denominated as underdogs, were talent-laden, with Jervy Cruz, Jojo Duncil, and Dylan Ababou, which also featured a solid supporting cast. So call it an upset if you like, but the teams were more closely matched than pundits would have it. On the other hand, this year's Blue Eagles have dominated the league. Discounting that fluke loss to UP (which they avenged with a blowout), nobody has even come close--except for La Salle in their first round meeting. But then again, in every Ateneo-La Salle, you throw out the season stats. Ateneo already drubbed UE twice this season, with the second round margin being wider than the score suggests. The Blue Eagles have superb offense, anchored by Al-Hussaini, Salamat, and Buenafe (this guy, as Luigi Trillo says, is a big-game player), all of whom can create for themselves. Then there's the perimeter shooting of Jai Reyes and Eman Monfort They've got great defense, with Baclao in the post, plus Salamat and Long in perimeter. The bench is deep, too, with Salva, Buenafe, and Monfort playing the roles of super-subs. So c'mon guys, don't make too much fuzz about it. Don't fall into "analysis paralysis." We all know how it'll turn out. Ateneo will sweep UE in the Finals.

Game 1 will be close though. UE is on an emotional high, no doubt about that. This will carry them through most parts of the opener. But they are undermatched, both in size and talent. So once the emotions wane--which will, come 4th quarter--the difference will be apparent. Ateneo's experience will overcome UE's emotions. So my prediction? Ateneo by 5.

As for Game 2, well, after a heart-breaking defeat in the first game, I expect UE to come out flat. It's going to be a blow out. At least 15 points. An anti-climactic end to an anti-climactic season. That's how it is, at least for me, all because of that loss to UP, which took away 15-0 in 150.