Best Closer

Last 6 minutes of LAL@OKC WCSF G2

2012 Playoff Predictions

It's that time of the year again. Haven't been money since '07 but who's to stop me, right? So without further ado, my pick for the 2012 NBA Championship:

The San Antonio Spurs.

I've picked them thrice in the last 5 years ('07, '08, and '11), and so the percentages aren't exactly in my favor. But they've been so good this year (3 10-game winning streaks)--even better after the All-Star break--that I'd be foolish not to pick them again. They are playing the best basketball in the planet right now, Tony Parker is having an MVP-type season and is the best point guard not named Chris Paul (at the moment, at least), Tim Duncan has been rejuvenated since the All-Star break while Pop masterfully manages his minutes, they are ten-deep (the backups just won them their last 2 regular season games), and most importantly, everyone is healthy.

But, having said that... it's tough to insure that this crew will remain healthy the rest of the way. That's what happened last year, when Manu sustained an elbow injury in the last game of the regular season. [As a side note, they wouldn't have lost to Memphis last year had Manu been healthy, had Timmy not been playing on one leg, and had Richard Jefferson made straightaway trifectas.] There is always the possibility of players being injured in basketball, but with the Spurs, it seems that the odds have historically been ever in their favor.

Assuming that they remain healthy, however, it's just hard to imagine anyone beating them four times in a 7-game series. They are the only red-hot team coming into the postseason. The only teams that worry me are the Lakers and the Grizzlies, because of their big and offensively-skilled frontline, which could pose problems for Duncan-Blair-Splitter-Diaw.

So how do we get there?

ECF Round 1:

Bulls over 76ers in six. Could be tougher for Chicago than most folks think. I see the Sixers as a poor man's version of the mid-2000's Pistons team--a bunch of good players with no superstars, with a seasoned coach who the players respect.

Hawks over Celtics in seven. My customary "upset" pick (Hawks are seeded 5th but they do have home court). Given that Paul Pierce just sprained his ankle in the last game of the season, this actually makes sense. Except the T-Mac is with the Hawks and T-Mac has never made it to the second round. But I'll stick with it because contrary to what many Celtics fans believe, their window has definitely closed.

Heat over Knicks in seven. This is the marquee first round matchup this year. Melo-Amare-Chandler vs. Wade-LeBron-Bosh. Should be a very good one. I just hope it lives up to the playoff history between the franchises.

Pacers over Magic in six. No Dwight, no chance.


WCF Round 1:

Spurs over Jazz in four. The Spurs' last 2 defeats came at the hands of the Lakers and the Jazz. But the Big Three didn't play in that loss to Utah--and yet the game was close coming in to the last 3 minutes. So unless Pop leaves the Big Three in Texas for the 2 road games, it's hard to imagine the Jazz waltzing with the Spurs.

Clippers over Grizzlies in seven. Most pundits will likely pick the Grizzlies. But I'll go with the Clips for 2 reasons: 1) Z-Bo is not playing at the same level as he did last year; and 2) Chris Paul. Next to Miami-NY, this should be the most fun to watch.

Thunder over Mavs in five. The Mavs' title defense should be short and painless. Rudy T. once said, "Never underestimate the heart of a champion." Problem is, the heart and soul of last year's Mavs defense is already in New York. I don't think Dallas have another gear in them and OKC is just gonna run them out of the building.

Lakers over Nuggets in six. I'm praying for an upset but I just can't come up with a scenario where the Nuggets will beat LA. Unless, of course, Bynum's knee suddenly gives out.


Conference Semis:

Bulls over Hawks in six. Same story as last year. Except the Bulls are better this year.

Heat over Pacers in five. Another ho-hum second round series in the East.

Spurs over Clippers in six. The Clippers could be a trendy underdog pick except for the fact that they're coached by Vinny del Negro. It's like having one of those tambays playing chess against Gary Kasparov.

Thunder over Lakers in seven. This should be a real slobberknocker. It's got bad blood (thanks to the Metta Artest elbow), recent playoff history (2010 first round), this year's top 2 scorers (Durant and Kobe), and big bodies (Bynum-Gasol vs. Perkins-Serge). Methinks home court will be the deciding factor... and the revenge of the Beard!!!


Conference Finals:

Bulls over Heat in seven. It's really tough to pick the Bulls this year because of all the injuries to Derrick Rose. And given how LeBron killed them last year, things aren't exactly all rosy in Chicago. But I'm picking them for the following reasons: 1. Chicago plays better defense; 2. Wade hasn't been healthy either; 3. LeBron's playoff history ('11 Finals, '10 ECSF, '09 ECF); 4. the Bulls' frontline of Noah-Boozer-Asik-Gibson is tougher than anyone in Bosh's pit; and 5. the fact that Chicago finished with a better regular season record than Miami despite D-Rose missing a handful of games tells you something about the team's depth and character.




Spurs over Thunder in six. Remember when I said earlier that the only 2 teams I worry about are the Lakers and the Grizzlies? So what about OKC? Well, the Spurs actually match up well against the Thunder (winning the season series 2-1, with both Manu and Tony not playing in the lone defeat). Their big men aren't offensive threats, which would take pressure off the Spurs' frontline defensively. Ultimately, though, I think West-brick will be the cause of OKC's downfall. I'm with Skip on this one. Sure, they've won tons of games in the regular season thanks to Westbrook. But in a 7-game series, where one of the greatest coaches of all-time can make the necessary adjustments, where media scrutiny is at its highest--I don't think OKC can get away with it.

Finals: Spurs over Bulls in six. The Bulls just aren't ready yet.

Before I end, just for laughs:

Why Tim Duncan is better than Kobe Bryant (UPDATED v3.0)

Since I’ve got some free time before I go into hermit-mode for the bar review come May, I figured I might as well do something productive. If you count agitating Kobephiles productive, that is. I’ve had this idea for about 3 years now; but as is everything with me, ideas take time to become reality. This was supposed to be my final entry in our ICT blog but I just didn’t have the time as the sem was winding down. (And thank God I didn’t, after I got screwed by the ICT profs—this video and this 4-page exam did not merit a 2.0 dammit! Anyway, it just wouldn’t have been worth it.)

So here’s my hypothesis: Tim Duncan is better than Kobe Bryant.

Now, I’m sure some people are already cursing me right now, accusing me that I don’t know anything about basketball. If you’re one of ‘em, then I really don’t give a rat’s arse what you think. If you’re at least open-minded, then read on. Around a month ago, Kobe was blabbering about how he didn’t have any rivals during his career. To a certain extent, I guess that’s true. If rivalry means going head-to-head with someone in the same position—like Wilt & Bill, Magic & Larry—then I concede that he didn’t. But when you talk about greatness per se, then Kobe was just being his usual arrogant self. Kobe isn’t the greatest post-Jordan superstar; Tim Duncan is.

So how do I go about measuring who is better? It’s quite a simple thought experiment, really: if you are a GM and your goal is to win as many NBA championships as possible, who would you pick, all things being equal?

Before proceeding to the merits of my case, I just have to make a couple of concessions. First, Kobe is a better scorer. In fact, Kobe might be one of the best offensive machines of all-time, perhaps next only to MJ and Wilt. But being a better scorer does not make one a better player. It just so happened that the greatest player of all-time is also the best scorer of all-time. If you insist talking about scoring alone, then you know nothing about basketball.

Second, Kobe has had a better career, longevity-wise. Kobe has played in 16 seasons, 13 at an elite level. Timmy has 15 seasons under his belt, with 13 elite. But Kobe is 2 years younger than Timmy, and given his (Kobe’s) motivation to go after Kareem’s career scoring record, he’ll probably continue to play at a high level for 2 more years. Timmy, on the other hand, is already at the tail end of his career and while still effective, no longer the dominant force he once was.[1] Despite the way I feel about Kobe, I gotta tip my hat off to his desire and hard work… even if I could hear him counting his career points every time he touches the ball.

So now let me break it down for you:

1. Kobe’s 5 rings is NOT worth more than Timmy’s 4

Some people will probably say, “Well, Kobe has 5 rings compared Timmy’s 4, so that’s ballgame right there.” Not quite. See, what we are measuring here is the number of championships a player can win as their team’s alpha dog. And who was the best player during the Lakers’ three-peat? Shaq Daddy. Sure, Kobe was already a superstar then. But those Lakers teams wouldn’t have won the championship without the Diesel. Not a chance. That’s a fact. Meanwhile, TD has been the best player in all 4 of the Spurs’ championship runs. Yes, including that one in 2007, when voters inexplicably handed the award to Tony Parker. Therefore, Timmy has won 4 titles as the team’s best player, while Kobe only has 2. Even if I’m generous and give half-Larry O’Brien trophies to Kobe during the times he played Robin to Shaq’s Batman, he will still trail Timmy 3 ½ to 4. Now, that's ballgame. But I'll indulge you some more.

2. Kobe had better teammates

Corollary to #1 is the fact that Kobe has had the luck of having an elite teammate during all the Lakers’ championship runs. History tells us that a team with 2 elite players has a better chance of winning the title. Jordan and Pippen. Shaq and Kobe. Magic and Kareem. Bird and McHale. Dr. J and Moses. I’ve already mentioned that Shaq, when he was wrecking havoc as the league’s most dominant center, basically gifted Kobe his first three rings. So how about in '09 and '10? Well, Kobe had Pau. Now, Laker fans don’t like Pau too much these days. But the truth is that during their last 2 championship runs, Pau was one of the top two centers in the league—and arguably the most offensively polished. He was All-NBA during those 2 championship seasons and is likely to go down as the second-best European player of all-time behind Dirk. While definitely not at Shaq’s level, he was nonetheless elite during those 2 years.

Compare this to who Duncan had. In 1999, he had a past-his-prime David Robinson. In 2003, he had a way-past-his-prime Admiral, with Tony and Manu still getting their feet wet. That ’03 title is of particular historical importance because: 1) since the turn of the millennium, there have been only 2 one-man teams to win the championship: Duncan’s ’03 team and Dirk’s Mavs last year; and 2) it was the most dominant Finals performance by a superstar since MJ left Chicago. Kobe can never touch that—which places him in a sort of conundrum: Kobe loves playing as if he was a one-man team, yet he cannot win the title as a one-man team.

It gets a little tricky in ’05 and ’07. Tony and Manu were already All-Star caliber during those years. While I love Manu (Tony? Not so much after the messing with me main man Brent Barry and breaking Eva Longoria’s heart), they were never really elite. They have 3 All-NBAs between them, which is equivalent to Pau’s career total. Notably, however, they didn’t make it during those 2 title runs. Neither Tony nor Manu were among the 5 best players in their respective positions from ’05 to ’07—or at any point of their careers for that matter. During that 3-year span, the top 5 point guards in the league were (in some order): Nash, Paul, Deron, Billups, and Kidd. In the shooting guard position it’s: Kobe, Wade, Arenas, McGrady, and Iverson. So while Kobe played with another superstar, Timmy played with 2 All-Stars. When it comes to winning championships, history says that Kobe had the advantage.

3. TD will win you more games

We’ve reached a point where we have to go to stats to prove my point. Rhetoric is good, but without stats to back them up, it won’t really count for much, wuddit? During the Tim Duncan era, the Spurs have never won fewer than 50 games during the regular season (except in the 1998 lockout season) and have never missed the NBA playoffs. Kobe’s Lakers? Well, they missed the playoffs in 2005, right after Kobe drove Shaq out of town, and were mediocre in 2006 and 2007. Since TD became a Spur, the franchise’s regular season winning percentage is 0.701 while Kobe’s Lakers posted a 0.659 mark.

Advanced metrics support the conclusion that TD is indeed a better winner. Timmy’s Wins Produced (a model for estimating individual player contribution to winning) during his elite seasons is way higher thank Kobe’s (255.9 to 158.6). To put things into perspective, MJ’s is 265.6.[2] In terms of Wins Produced per 48 minutes, TD is a full tenth ahead of Kobe (0.315 vs. 0.215). In fact, Kobe’s WP48 of below 0.300 is not enough to accord him superstar status. What this all means is that you’ll win more games with TD as your star player. And lest we forget, basketball is all about winning.

4. Kobe is not more clutch than Timmy

Perhaps the biggest fallacy of all-time is that Kobe is his generation’s best closer. He is not. The thing is, he takes too many shots that people only remember the ones he make—forgetting the tons of misses in the process. For this purpose, let us use the clutch +/- (4th quarter or overtime, less than 5 minutes left, neither team ahead by more than 5 points ) as our gauge because it reflects how much their respective teams outscored the opponents with either superstar on the floor. This is a better measure than merely looking at points scored because it gives us the overall picture of the player’s effect on the team, both on the offensive and defensive end. Since 2003, the earliest year available, Timmy’s clutch +/- of +6.4 is slightly better than Kobe’s (+6.3). Looking at the adjusted +/- since 2007, Duncan leads Kobe (16.8 to 16.6)—this despite Duncan already reaching the tail end of his career. (Note that these “clutch” +/- stats are only available from 2003 onwards, thus failing to account for Timmy’s 2 MVP seasons.)

Even if we talk about clutch shots from 2000-01 through last season (thanks to basketball-reference.com), which I define as 30 seconds or less, one possession (down 3 or up 3) game, Duncan’s FG% is significantly higher (40.2%, 37-for-92) than Kobe’s (32%, 76-for-237). Yes, you read that right, two hundred thirty seven attempts!!! That's almost 20 attempts per season! You've gotta marvel at the courage, but you have to question his decision-making. He's playing hero ball, not basketball. Just so you know how outrageous his number of attempts were, other recognized clutch players average less than 15 attempts per season: Chris Paul (11.7), Melo (9.2), Wade (12.3), and, MJ (9.5, in 2 seasons in Washington; I just had to). Kobe averaged better than 40% only once during the 12-year span; Timmy did it 7 times (granted, of course, that his attempts were more modest). Comparing the years with the most makes, Timmy went 8-for-19 in '03-04, while Kobe hit 10-of-25 in '09-10. Which begs the question, would you really rather have Kobe taking the last shot? Based on the stats, the answer would be, and should be, no.

Lost in many basketball fans' obsession in game-winning heroics are defensive plays that seal wins or give teams chances to win. Game-saving blocks and game-saving steals--or just plainly "game-savers," if you will. Using the same criteria as above (30 seconds or less, +/-3 points), Timmy has the advantage. Since 2000-01 through last season, Tim's got 8 game-savers (all blocks), while Kobe has 7 (4 steals and 3 blocks). However, the close margin is more apparent than real. The "clutch" definition I have been using is deceptive when applied to defensive stats, because making blocks or steals is not as simple as taking shots (just think about it, I don't think I know of anyone who has averaged 5 blocks or 5 steals per game for an entire season). Ergo, the sample might be too narrow. If we expand it a bit--to less than 3 minutes of a 5-point ballgame--the difference is much more glaring. TD has 69 (52 blocks and 17 steals); Kobe has 50 (31 steals and 19 blocks). Again, you have to look at basketball games as a total package. Any basketball fan worth his salt knows that in close games, denying the opponent a chance to score is as important as making shots.

Another key stat is turnovers in game-winning situations. Since a turnover basically deprives the team a chance of winning or gives the opponent an opportunity to steal the win, you could put along side game-winners and game-savers as an important clutch indicator. Reverting to my original definition of clutch, Kobe has 18 clutch turnovers since 2000 through last season. Duncan has 11. In other words, Kobe is more likely to cost his team the game than Timmy. Wouldn't want that from your "closer," no?

5. Tim Duncan is more efficient

Perhaps the holy grail of advanced metrics is Hollinger’s Player Efficiency Rating (PER). Comparing the greatest power forward of all-time with the second best shooting guard of all-time, the former once again outperforms the latter.

Duncan’s career PER of 24.7 includes 5 seasons of PER above 25.0. Kobe, on the other hand, holds a career of 23.5 with only 3 seasons above 25.0. Comparing their stats to the gold standard, MJ:

Career PER: 27.9
12 seasons over 25.0
4 above 30.0.

I love this stat because it destroys the preconceived correlation between scoring and greatness. As I've said earlier, it just so happened that MJ scored a lot of points. What people should really be looking at is the PER. Expectedly, MJ is number 1. Duncan’s career PER ranks 9th all-time, ten spots above Kobe.

6. Timmy is a better defender

Timmy is the only player to be named to both the All-NBA and All-Defense teams in each of his first 13 seasons. Kobe has been named All-Defense 11 times but the difference is actually wider than it appears on paper. Timmy had the capacity to alter the opposing team’s offense because of his intimidating presence in the paint. He was an elite on- and off-ball defender and was the defensive anchor of all of the Spurs’ title runs. From 2004-2007, Timmy led the league in defensive rating. During his first 10 years in the league, he was never below 4th in that category. And as they say, defense wins championships. While Kobe is an excellent one-on-one defender, you can’t really say his impact on the defensive end is at par with TD.

7. Timmy is “more valuable”

Another stat that matters: MVPs – Timmy 2, Kobe 1. It cannot be denied that the NBA MVP is the most important individual accolade in the league—perhaps even in all four major American leagues (i.e., NBA, NFL, NHL, and MLB). Considering that they were near-contemporaries (TD peaked 3 years ahead of Kobe), the fact that Timmy won one more MVP trophy than Kobe is quite telling. Actually, it says more about Kobe than anything else. If he was so great, then why didn’t he win more? If he is truly unrivalled as he claims, then why only one MVP? Surely, voter fatigue was not a factor as it was with MJ. Couldn’t have been due to popularity either; after all, Kobe has sold way more jerseys than Timmy. What this means is that, despite Kobe’s view of himself, sportswriters never really regarded him as the best of his generation. In fact, even if we consider second-place finishes in the MVP race, the difference would be wider. Timmy finished 2nd in ’01 and ’04, while Kobe finished 2nd in ’09. That would be 4 top-2 finishes in the MVP ballots for TD and only 2 for Kobe.

Unsurprisingly, several publications/blogs (Sports Illustrated, Ball Don’t Lie’s Kelly Dwyer, ESPN’s John Hollinger, The Huffington Post’s Tom Ziller, among others) named Duncan as the player of the decade.

8. Timmy is a better teammate

Locker room dynamics is particularly important in professional sports. In the NBA, a team plays 82 games over the course of 5 months—which is why you need your players to get along on and off the court. A dysfunctional team never wins a championship. This is another reason why, as a GM, you’d rather have Timmy on your team.

Try Googling for something damning that Timmy said about his teammates or vice-versa and you’ll find none. The only thing you’ll likely find is his feud with Joey Crawford. In fact, past and present teammates have nothing but praises for TD. He was happy for TP when the latter was named the ’07 Finals MVP—just imagine the look on Kobe’s face had Pau won the 2010 Finals MVP. He once called Stephen Jackson the “ultimate teammate”; but really, it is Timmy who is the ultimate teammate—on and off the court. As Popovich notes, Duncan is “that easy to play with, and his skills are so fundamentally sound that other people can fit in.”

Can’t say the same thing about Kobe, though. His clashes with Shaq were well-chronicled. Most notable was when Kobe threw Shaq under the bus after the Colorado incident. Yes, that Colorado incident. (Hey, I’m not even attacking Kobe for that rape-that-wasn’t.) Even the great Phil Jackson labelled Kobe as “uncoachable” in his book. Kobe publicly dissed Bynum and the Lakers organization when things weren’t going well in ’07. And he bitches his teammates when they don’t get him the ball.

This quote from Brian Shaw, Kobe’s teammate from 1999-2003, after the Colorado incident is particularly enlightening: “Shaq had all these parties and you (Kobe) never showed up for any of them. We invited you to dinner on the road and you didn’t come. Shaq invited you to his wedding and you weren’t there. Then you got married and didn’t invite any of us. And now you are in the middle of this problem, this sensitive situation, and now you want all of us to step up for you. We don’t even know you.” No wonder he didn’t get the Lakers coaching gig.

9. What Ifs

Hypothetically, TD could have won at least 6 titles. In 2004, the Spurs would have repeated as champions had the game clock properly run in Derek Fisher’s 0.4 second shot that shouldn’t have counted. When you look at the replay, don’t look at whether he got it off on time because he did. But the clock didn’t immediately run the moment he caught the ball, which gave him around 0.2 more to release it. Pay attention to how he caught the ball in mid-air before landing on both his feet. The clock should’ve started to run by then. Instead, it ran only when he had both his feet set.

In 2006, Manu committed a stupid foul on Dirk in the dying seconds of Game 7 of the West Semis (the de facto Finals) with the Spurs up by 3. It was a foul, no doubt. But what if the refs let them play? I mean, it was playoff basketball after all. Surely, the Spurs would not have choked in the Finals against the Heat. The Spurs were much closer to the cusp of a rare 5-peat than people think. You can also throw in a couple of injury “what ifs.” What if Manu was 100% in ‘08 against the Lakers? What if Tony wasn’t injured in ’10 against the Suns?

Meanwhile, the “what if” game would cost Kobe at least 2 titles. In 2002, what if Lakers-Kings series wasn’t rigged? Oh, David Stern says it wasn’t. Wait, it wasn’t?! Well, at least what if the refs properly called a flagrant-1 on Kobe for his elbow on Bibby in the dying seconds of Game 6? Peja would’ve knocked down both technical free throws and the Kings would have clinched the series. Then in 2010, what if Perkins wasn’t injured in Games 6 and 7? The Celts were badly outrebounded in both of those games (52-39 in G6, 53-40 in G7), both losses. In their 3 wins, Boston won the battle of the boards. Certainly, Perkins’ presence would have altered any one of those games.

What this exercise is meant to illustrate is that with Tim Duncan, a franchise is guaranteed at least 4 titles. Four titles without controversy. With some luck, you could ride him for 6 or 7. If you pair Shaq and Kobe, you’re guaranteed at least 2... before the situation self-combusts. But with Kobe alone, you’re really guaranteed only 1.

In an alternate universe, these what ifs probably happened, and the me in that universe would not even bother writing this stuff. Cos in that universe, Timmy’s got 6 titles while Kobe’s got 3, and the entire argument would be plainly stupid.

10. Timmy performs better during the playoffs

In the end, it all comes down to this. You want to win titles? You need a superstar that rises up to the occasion.[3] Plain and simple. Here are Kobe and Timmy’s postseason stats:

TD: 22.7ppg 12.4rpg 3.4apg 50.2%FG PER: 25.4
Kobe: 25.4ppg 5.1rpg 4.8apg 44.8%FG PER: 22.3

It’s much closer than you thought, right? Considering that Kobe is supposed to be a much better scorer, Timmy is surprisingly within 3 points per game of Kobe. What I’d really like to point out is the PERs. Timmy’s postseason PER is higher than his regular season rating, while Kobe’s postseason PER is lower. This means that Timmy raises his game in the postseason, while Kobe slightly regresses. And just to drive home the point, TD has four career playoff triple-doubles. Kobe? Zilch.

Let’s narrow it down to Finals performance:

TD: 22.7ppg 14.4rpg 3.4apg 47.2%FG Finals MVP: 3
Kobe: 24.7ppg 5.5rpg 4.9 apg 40.7%FG Finals MVP: 2

While TD maintains the same offensive output, his rebounds per game average increases by 2. On the other hand, Kobe averages fewer points per game with marginal increases in the rebounding and assist departments. Although each suffer a dip in shooting percentage, Kobe’s 40.7% clip is downright woeful for a superstar. Unsurprisingly, Kobe only has 2 Finals MVPs in his 7 Finals appearances.

In Hollinger’s 50 greatest Finals performances (series), all of Timmy’s NBA Finals appearances make it to the list. His 2003 decimation of the Nets is ranked as the 3rd best all-time. His other entries are: #11 (’99), #41 (’07), and #45 (’05). Kobe only had 2 in the list: #15 (‘09) and #24 (’10). In terms of the best single-game Finals performances, Kobe only has 2 games in the top 50: Game 1 of the 2009 Finals (#13) and Game 5 of that same series (#49). On the other hand, TD has four: Game 1 ’03 (#6), Game 1 ’99 (#32), Game 5 ’03 (#35), and Game 1 ’07 (#45).

When we talk about winning percentage, Timmy is 4-0 in his Finals appearance with a 0.727 winning percentage in all of his Finals games. Kobe is 5-2 in the Finals, with a 0.605 winning percentage in all Finals games played.

Yet even if we disregard the numbers, we will still reach the same conclusion. Kobe’s most memorable playoff moment is his alley-oop to Shaq in 2000 against Portland (my favorite team at the time)—quite ironic, considering how Kobe hates passing and how he would drive Shaq out of LA several years later. Perhaps his most memorable Finals moment was when he scored 23 straight points against Boston in Game 5 of 2010—which was ultimately meaningless because they went on to lose the game. His other memorable moment: the 6-for-24 stink bomb in Game 7(!) of the series against the Celts.

Meanwhile, the great Tim Duncan owns one of the all-time legendary NBA Finals performance: his “two blocks shy of a quadruple-double” game in the clincher against the Nets (’03). His 24-point second half in the opener against the Nets (#6 in Hollinger’s list) is constantly replayed in the NBA’s Greatest Games.

11. The Tensai's Rating

Finally, allow me to use the system I’ve devised to measure who is the better player.

Here are the criteria:

- NBA MVP awards won (5 points each)
- NBA Finals MVP awards (5 points each)
- NBA championships won (3 points each)
- All-Star Games selected to play in (1 point each)
- All-NBA first-team selections (2 points each)
- All-NBA second-team selections (1.5 points each)
- All-NBA third team selections (1 point each)
- All-defensive first-team (1.5 points each)
- All-defensive second-team (1 point each)
- All-Star MVP awards (1 point each)
- Rookie of the Year (1 point each)

- Individual statistical titles (2 points each) — restricted to a) basic stats (per game averages): points, rebounds, assists, and field goal percentage; and b) advanced stats: offensive rating, defensive rating and PER.

- Career playoff averages (2 points each) — for each category the player leads over the other (see above for restrictions)

The weighted results—

TD: 106.5
Kobe: 96.5
Winner: Tim Duncan

The inevitable conclusion is that Timmy is the better player. Yes, Kobe scores more points. Yes, Kobe could be spectacular to watch. Yes, Kobe sells more shoes and jerseys. Yes, Timmy is boring. But it doesn’t matter. Basketball is a team sport. Basketball is about winning. And if you’re a GM, the logical choice would be to pick Tim Duncan. Even more so if your life depended on it.

---------
Notes:

[1] But he is not washed up, dammit. After the Spurs got drubbed by LA a couple of days ago, I heard this stupid DJ claiming that TD is way over the hill. He is not. He isn’t Ewing playing for the Raptors or Hakeem with the Sonics or the 2003 David Robinson. The Spurs’ next game? Timmy drops 28 in a win against the surging Grizzlies.
[2] This is why the MJ-Kobe argument is utterly comical and foolish.
[3] Did someone say LeBron? (awkward silence)

*Sources:
http://www.basketball-reference.com
http://www.82games.com

**See also:
http://arturogalletti.wordpress.com/2011/01/29/the-curious-case-of-kobe-bryant/
http://alltalksports.wordpress.com/2007/08/17/my-beef-with-kobe-part-iii-no-love-for-his-teammates/

2001-2010: The Tensai's Sports Retrospect

I'm still not sure the proper way of counting a decade. Is it 2000-09? Or 2001-10? I reckon it's the latter, but again I'm not quite sure. But for argument's sake, let's just assume I'm correct--cos writing this wouldn't make sense if the decade ended last year.

During the 10-year span, we saw the rise social networking sites (Friendster in the early part, Facebook in the latter); Youtube; the Lord of the Rings and Spider-Man trilogies, the Batman reboot and the two Iron Man movies; Mystic River, Million Dollar Baby, The Departed, The Aviator, Juno, and Slumdog; the Ipod and the Iphone; Windows XP, Vista, and 7; the end of the Harry Potter, the god-forsaken Twilight series, and the underrated Hunger Games Trilogy; death of John Paul II; 400+ chapters of Bleach and 500+ chapters of Naruto; the Aniston-Pitt-Jolie triangle... well, you get the drift. A lot of things happened this past decade, sports included.

But different events impact people in varying degrees. When Barack Obama won the US Presidency, it didn't matter to me as much as it did to African-Americans. In the same manner, the Lakers winning back-to-back titles in 2009 and 2010 didn't mean a tiny rat's ass to me. Nonetheless, there are events that mattered to everyone. World War II. 9/11. Those events effectively changed the course of the world. So I've decided to divide my list into two: (1) a short list of sporting events that mattered to every and all sports fans; and (2) a list that impacted my life in one way or another.

The Events That Mattered Period

1. The Boston Red Sox wins the 2004 World Series

Down 3-0 in the ALCS against arch-rivals Yankees, the Bo Sox pulled off perhaps the greatest comeback in the history of team sports. And it's not just because they became the 1st team in baseball to win a series after falling behind 3-0. It's how they did it in that pivotal Game 4. People tend to forget that the Sox were down 4-3 in the 9th inning of that game, and they had to face the greatest closer of all-time, Mariano Rivera. The odds of them winning? Not so good. So they literally pulled off a comeback within a comeback (damn, I forgot Inception in the list above).

They went on to sweep the Cards in the World Series for their first pennant win in 86 years. Eighty-six years. We're talking about Babe Ruth-era baseball right there. The championship was so historic that a Hollywood movie had to completely change it's ending (Fever Pitch) just cos the Red Sox won.

2. Liverpool beats Milan in the 2005 UEFA Champions League Final

The Miracle of Istanbul. Down 3-nil at the end of the 1st half, Liverpool equalized in the 2nd and then went on to win in the penalty shootout. It probably wouldn't mean much if you just look at the numbers; after all, it's just 3 goals, right? Wrong. This is football we're talking about here. Watch a football match between 2 very good teams and you'll be lucky to see both teams score 3 goals between them for the entire game. To put things into perspective, the 2010 World Cup Final between Spain and Netherlands finished 1-0. So 3 in 45 minutes is amazing. And to do so coming from behind, against the 2003 European Champions, a team which is more talented on paper, a team trying to protect its lead--now, that's stuff of legends.

Also consider that the Reds struggled domestically--they didn't finish in the top 4 of the Premier League that season. And their last Champions League trophy was in 1984.

3. The Nadal-Federer Wimbledon championship match (2008)

Nadal defeated the 5-time defending champion in the longest championship match in Wimbledon history. Perhaps this signified the changing of the guards. Not long thereafter, Nadal ascended to no. 1 in the world rankings and has been the best player since. But that's not why it made the list. The match was significant not because of what the outcome meant; its significance is in the match itself. It was a classic. A match befitting of the billing of No. 1-versus-No. 2. The power, finesse, and technique that both exhibited were topnotch. More than that, the will to win of both guys: unparalleled. Whenever you see two guys exerting themselves beyond their physical limitations to win, then you know it's special. If you'll watch just one tennis match in your lifetime, then watch this. If you'll watch two, then also watch the 2009 Wimbledon Finals between Federer and Roddick (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3NRo7FxYO4g).

4. Pacquiao decimates Oscar de la Hoya in "The Dream Match" (2008)

When Pacquiao destroyed Barrera in 2003, he proved he was world-class. When he annihilated Morales a second time in 2006, he became the greatest Filipino boxer of all-time. When he climbed up in weight and absolutely demolished the legendary Oscar de la Hoya, he entered the pantheon of boxing legends.

5. Michael Phelps wins 8 gold medals in the 2008 Beijing Olympics

Phelps already won 8 medals in Athens 2004. But only 6 of those were gold. So he came back in 2008 and made sure that everything was golden. Legendary.

The Events That Mattered To Me

I wouldn't be ranking this one cos it'd be too damn hard.

2002 World Basketball Championships, Serbia wins gold beating Argentina in the final and USA in the quarters

The 2nd best international team of the decade behind the 2008 USA national team. Vlade, Peja, 'Euro Magic' Bodiroga, Jaric, Vlad Rad, Drob-N-Jak... this Serbian team was pretty good. And the final game against Argentina went into overtime. It's always good when the finale goes overtime.

2002 World Cup Finals, Brazil beats Germany 2-0

For me, it's not about Brazil's 5th World Cup. It's about O Fenomeno's redemption. See, in the 1998 final against France, Ronaldo suffered a convulsion right before the match. He took a lot of heat for it--perhaps justifiably so. Nothing could be sweeter than to score all the goals at the same stage 4 years later. They should make a documentary of it. And that performance probably cemented his place in the Top 15 (if not Top 10) of all-time greats.

40-year old Michael Jordan scores 43 in 2003

Should MJ have stayed retired? I guess so. After all, there couldn't be a more perfect ending than the "Last Shot" against Utah. But as a fan, it was my duty to support him whatever his decision was. So every little good thing that came out of the 2nd comeback made me feel good. Especially that 43-point game. I remember the sports headline reading something like 'MJ scores his age' or something. Damn, I couldn't even score my age when I was younger.

2003 UEFA Champions League Semifinals 2nd leg, Juventus beats Real Madrid 3-1 (4-3 on agg.)

This was one match worthy of a final. The defending European Champions versus the Italian Champions. Ronaldo, Zidane, Figo, Roberto Carlos, and Casillas for Madrid; Nedved, Del Piero, Buffon, Davids, and Trezeguet for Juve. Top quality football match.

But I remember the match not because it's the best ever (I haven't seen enough matches to form an intelligent opinion). It mattered because of two words: Pavel Nedved. He dominated the game from midfield. He provided the lob that led to the opening goal. And then he scored himself. He wasn't flashy but he was brilliant. That was when I matured as a football fan. Football was more strategically complex than I thought. My theory before was that the player who scores the most goals is the best (cos that's what O Fenomeno did). Not necessarily so.

Watch how Nedved cries at the end of the match because he would miss the finals due to an accumulation of yellow cards. I mean, how many sportsmen would show that type of emotion nowadays? Men that would care so much about winning? It would prove to be ominous, as Juve would lose to an inferior Milan team in the finals. Nevertheless, that's why I've decided that my first son's 2nd name would be Pavel.

Greg Maddux wins #300 in 2005

At his peak: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s3LLXqi95eQ

Greg Maddux is my favorite player in baseball history. Just like my other faves (like Duncan and Nedved), he's a substance-over-style kind of guy. He doesn't throw as many strikeouts, but he gets the outs nonetheless. Precision and control. He wasn't nearly as dominant this decade as he was in the 90's. But winning 300 games is quite a feat in itself.

The Near-Quadruple-Double, 2003 NBA Finals

The most dominant playoff performance of the decade courtesy of Timmy D. (Well, if LeBron had stayed with Cleveland, I would've put the 48-Special right up there). Check out the statline: 21 points, 20 boards, 10 assists, and 8 blocks. All that in a closeout game. Wow.

2006 Western Conference Semifinals, Dallas wins series against San Antonio 4-3

The best playoff series the past decade. Yes, better than the past two Lakers-Celtics trysts. Not as hyped, but way better. It sucks that San Antonio lost, but it was basketball at its finest. They had the two best records in the West but had to meet in the 2nd round because of the stupid seeding methodology that the NBA used then, which automatically granted the top 3 seeds to each division winner (which has been scrapped since). Dirk was already MVP-material. Timmy was still in his prime. The Spurs were the defending champions. The Mavs were looking to get over the San Antonio hump that had derailed them so many times before. This was the de facto Finals (except that the Mavs couldn't keep their end of the bargain when they inexplicably collapsed against the Heat). Game 7 went into overtime. Five of the games were decided by 5 points or less. And the two teams genuinely disliked each other. What more can I ask for? (I know what, I wish the refs hadn't called that dubious foul on Manu in the 4th quarter of Game 7.)

2007 NBA Finals, Spurs win 4th title in Duncan era

This cemented the Spurs' status as a dynasty team. And elevated Duncan as the best player in the post-Jordan basketball world. I know Kobephiles would vehemently disagree, but wait till April. I'll prove that Duncan is better and destroy all Kobe arguments.

2009 Stanley Cup Playoffs Eastern Conference Semifinals, Pittsburgh Penguins over Washington Capitals 4-3

Nobody watches hockey in the Philippines. Except for those wealthy enough to play hockey in MOA's Olympic-sized rink. Or those who grew up thinking Mighty Ducks was the best sports movie ever... like me. While we might never see a Kobe-LeBron final--well, at least not with both as alpha dogs anyway--this series featured Sidney Crosby vs. Alex Ovechkin. The two best hockey players in the world. Ovechkin had 14 points in the series; Crosby 13. Now, that's what a superstar showdown is like. I rooted for Sid the Kid but at that time Ovi might have been better individually. Speaking of, you should take time to watch HBO's 24/7 special on the NHL Winter Classic featuring the Pens and the Caps. Good watch. Here's the link: http://www.youtube.com/user/247NHL#g/p

The Decision, 2010

Cop out. Narcissism. Officially took me off the "LeBron could be the greatest of all-time" bandwagon. http://cesc-pistol.blogspot.com/2010/07/lebron-greatest-letdown-of-all-time.html

Sebastian Vettel wins 2010 F1 Driver's Title

Almost forgot this one. It effectively saved the 2010 sporting calendar for me, which had not been very kind--except for the Ateneo 3-peat.

I'll remember this one because this was Seb Vettel's first title. I assure you, when he finishes his career, he'll have at least 3. But the first is always the most special. Add to that all the drama, the ups and downs, the "this can't be happening" moments, and the fact that he never led the standings until after the final race. These are the things that make me tick. The most talented guy coming from behind and dominating down the stretch--I like this story better than all the Cinderella/underdog stories. Reminds me of something from high school.

Flashback 2007: I was watching the Japanese Grand Prix and heard Steve Slater mention that this rookie driving a Toro Rosso had just become the youngest man to lead an F1 race. It immediately grabbed my attention because this guy was actually racing for a podium spot; it's not as if all the front-runners have made their pitstops and he's the only one on track yet to make his. What made it improbable was that he was driving a Toro Rosso. It's Red Bull's B-team. I could instantly give you 7 teams that are better than Scuderia Toro Rosso, which would account for 14 drivers with better machines. He would crash out of that race but I distinctly remember muttering 'Vettel' to myself just to make sure I won't forget the name of the next Schumi. That was the year everyone kept talking about Lewis Hamilton. It never really caught on with me. I had convinced myself that this 'Vettel' guy was better. "Just wait when he joins Ferrari," I said. Turns out, he didn't have to.

Ateneo Blue Eagles wins the UAAP Season 65 men's basketball plum

I know I said I wouldn't rank the second list. But this is number 1. Hands-down. Why? Two reasons: (1) I was a student and (2) I was at the Araneta for the two most important games: the "Jec Chia shot" in the winner-advances Final Four game against UE; and the clincher, Game 3 of the Finals. It's just different when you go to school everyday, talk UAAP for a good 3 months, and, honestly, just to have the Ateneo school spirit running through your veins. There's nothing quite like it. When my buddy Benjoe and I watched the Blue Eagles win this year's crown, we weren't as ecstatic as 8 years ago. Maybe it's because the 2002 series was against La Salle; or maybe because Ateneo had to wait 14 years for the 2002 crown; or maybe because the entire 2002 season was a Cinderalla story; or maybe because we had to line up at dawn to buy tickets; or maybe we were just getting older. But it's different. It just is. We couldn't even jump to courtside after the victory--which we did in '02 with Benjie, Jek, Mau and Perocho. Nothing could ever replicate that part of my life. It's something that I'll proudly tell my grandkids about.

What Would Duncan/Kobe Do? WWDD vs. WWKD

Two of the games today (SAS-GSW [http://espn.go.com/nba/recap?gameId=301130009] and LAL-MEM [http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/recap?gameId=301130029]) provided a good contrast between the two best post-Jordan superstars. You've got Duncan scoring only 15 points, on a subpar shooting night (only 6-of-15). So what did he do? He got his teammates involved, crashed boards, and played defense. In other words, he allowed the game come to him. He wasn't concerned about the stats. It just so happened that the stats reflected his unselfish play. On the other hand, you've got Kobe scoring 29 but on 25 shots. Just another typical night for him. He got his points but you couldn't say that they were all in the flow of the game. He's the kind of player who feels he has to score 30 a night for his team to win. Score 30 by any means necessary. Even if it takes 25 shots. Hell, even if it takes 50. Doesn't matter if he's been shooting 6-for-24 (just had to get that in there). And then he bitches when his teammate misses the final shot (check 3:00 of http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nME7ZEvEvP0).
That's the difference right there. On a poor shooting night, compare WWDD and WWKD. Duncan would get his teammates involved. Kobe would force his offense. Duncan's team won. Kobe's team lost. So if you're a GM building a franchise from scratch, what mentality would you want your franchise player to have? I thought so. (If you answered WWKD, then you better get your head checked... by a jumbo jet.) That's why in the list of post-Jordan superstars, Tim Duncan is #1; Kobe Bryant is #2.
And I guess that's why I don't like Mr. 24 (or Mr. 81, whichever you want to call him).

2010-11 NBA Season Preview

With the NBA season just around the corner, I somehow managed to get myself semi-excited--at least to that level where I felt like writing about it (used to be a regular thing back in the fptensai days). Personally, the 2010-11 Season is significant for one thing: it's my first year not rooting for LeBron. He filled the "Jordan void" inside me when Mike finally decided to hang it up in 2002. See, back when Mike played, there was only one acceptable ending to the season: Mike = NBA Champion. Anything short of that is a disappointment. Yes, even during his Wizards days. I love Duncan and Peja, but the obsession to see them win never really reached that level. Suffice it to say that the Jordan void is back. Anyway, "the Decision" is done and dusted, and it's time for me and Sir Charles to move on.

I'll be ranking the 5 best teams in each conference, as I figure they'll finish in the regular season. This does not necessarily reflect how they'll perform in the playoffs, of course. Just the 82 games. No stats or special formula. Simply good ol' honest to goodness gut-feel from the self-proclaimed tensai. Here we go:

Eastern Conference

1. Miami Heat. As disappointed as I was with LeBron, there's no denying that he's still the best baller in the planet. Switching teams doesn't change that. Now, he's with a team that's remarkably better than the Cleveland team he single-handedly carried to 60-plus wins the past 2 seasons. Wade is a top-5 player in the league. Bosh is a top-10 big man. But what really surprised me is how the Heat was able to add quality guys like Mike Miller, Carlos Arroyo, Joel Anthony, and Zydrunas Ilgauskas to their lineup. I always thought it was gonna be the Big 3 plus 9 NBDL guys. Their additions made the Heat bona fide title contenders and good enough for the top spot in the East. The question then is: will they challenge the Bulls' 72-win mark? I don't think so. Why? Two reasons. One, they can't play interior defense. The likes of Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol are gonna eat their frontline alive. Two, injuries. Wade is already out. Miller just went down. And what about LeBron's elbow? What ever happened to that? Would someone from the media please ask him how the elbow is? Anyone?

2. Orlando Magic. Have you seen this? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mArHU1ewSog. Could it be, that after 6 years in the league, Dwight has finally decided to polish his offensive game? We'll have to wait and see, but if he's serious, then I guess the Shaq-comparisons would finally be more real than imagined. In any case, interior defense and rebounding will always be a constant with D12. But to me, the big question mark would have to be Vince Carter. You could argue that the one year with the club has helped him fully adjust to the system. A counter-argument, however, is that he'll be turning 34 years old, and the extra year only hurts him and the team.

3. Chicago Bulls. Their big summer move was landing Boozer after missing out on the LeBron sweepstakes. Not bad for a team that's been to the playoffs the past 2 years, thanks in large part to their young All-Star point guard Derrick Rose. He's been awesome the past 2 years and he can only get better. The Noah-Boozer combo easily gives the Bulls a formidable inside presence on both ends of the floor--Boozer on offense and Noah on defense. They've also added Korver, Brewer, and a bunch of other serviceable guys. The key for them, methinks, is Luol Deng. He was on the verge of stardom back in 2007, with his breakout performance in the playoffs. A couple of years and injuries years later, he's a forgotten man, except in trade talks. If he shows up this year, then the Bulls might just crack it to the elite crowd.

4. Boston Celtics. Before I hear any outbursts from Celtics fans, remember that this is only for the regular season. They got pipped for the 3rd spot last year by the Hawks. I think they're trying to follow the Spurs model, just coasting through the regular season and turning it on in the playoffs. They were 1 quarter away from winning the title last year, so you know they're still dangerous. Rondo just keeps getting better, and I think he'll be playing with a chip on his shoulder this year after what went down with Team USA. Obviously though, their biggest problem is age. They've added Shaq and Jermaine, which quite frankly only makes them older. And it was almost pitiful to watch Paul Pierce and KG in the Finals last year. I don't think the window has closed yet. But managing the minutes of their aging stars will be paramount during the regular season.

5. Atlanta Hawks. They've been improving the past 3 seasons, and having maintained their core, they should still be good this year--at least good enough to win 50-plus games. They've got a new coach, so we still have to see how the players respond. The biggest problem for me is that they haven't made any moves to improve in the off-season. They've been swept out of the playoffs the past 2 seasons. For them, it's not about the window closing; it's about the learning curve going flat. I think that with their current roster, 2nd round of the playoffs is the best they can do. Now, you have to factor in Jamal Crawford's public trade request, and see if it affects team's performance on the court. And looking at the franchise long-term, they just killed themselves with that outrageous Joe Johnson contract. It'll hunt them in the years to come.

Honorable Mention:

Milwaukee Bucks. Fear the Deer! Last year's surprise team is a year older--and a year better. Never really got on the Brandon Jennings bandwagon, but I gotta admit that the kid can put points on the board. He just needs to improve the god-awful 38% FG shooting. Equally important is improving those assist numbers--raise it up to a more point guard-like 7-plus something per. Why? Cos this team has got quality offensive players in Salmons, Ilyasova, Redd (if healthy), Bogut, and newly-signed Maggette. If Bogut has fully recovered from his injury, then this could be the year that they overtake the Hawks. But I'm not sure if Scott Skiles is the right man for the job. He's a defensive coach whereas the skill set of the Bucks is better suited for run-and-gun play. I wouldn't be surprised if Don Nelson gets a call mid-season.

Western Conference

1. Los Angeles Lakers. Easy pick here, though I'm not liking it. I'm not really sold on the strength of their lineup, especially the bench. But they've won back-to-back titles with what they have, all because Phil Jackson is at the helm. So there's no other reasonable conclusion than to acknowledge that the number 1 seed in the West is a virtual lock for them. They've got Kobe, a top-10 guard of all-time according to Mike, who I think still has 2 more years left as an elite player. I think Gasol will play a bigger role on offense this year to compensate for an expected cutback of Kobe's minutes.

2. Dallas Mavericks. They're traditionally a very good regular season team and I think the trend continues this season. Tyson Chandler is a big upgrade from Dampier. The only question is his health. He has never been able to play 82 games in his 9 years in the league. We also have to look at how Beaubois develops this year. If he can carry over the fine play he showed in last year's postseason, then the Mavs got themselves a gem. In any case, as long as they've got Dirk, they'll continue to win games just because the Diggler won't let them lose.

3. Portland Trailblazers. One of the deepest and most talented teams in the West. Yet they've never really been seriously thought of as title-contenders. I think this is the year that changes all that. Roy and Aldridge are perennial All-Stars. The frontline of Camby, Przybilla, and Oden would pose a problem to opposing teams because of their sheer size, defensive presence, and rebounding. Hopefully, Oden gets to finally play a complete season. The Rudy Fernandez situation has been sorted out. Nicolas Batum played great for France in the Worlds. Releasing Steve Blake is the best off-season move for them. Andre Miller has had a year to adjust to the system, which should theoretically make them better... There are those seasons when teams turn from being a good team to a very good team. Remember when the high-octane offense of the Kings and Mavs made waves in the 2001 season? Or the Hornets in 2008? This might just be that year for Portland.

4. Oklahoma City Thunder. The best young team in the league with the best young player in the league. Last year was their breakthrough season, making the playoffs and just being a missed Gasol tip-in away from upsetting the defending champs. But the experience alone should prove invaluable for this young bunch. And what about their best player? Well, he simply took over the World Championships and led Team USA to the gold medal. The strides that Durant has made from year-to-year is astonishing. You have to wonder, how good can he possibly be? I still think he's not yet at LeBron's level, but he's got time. He's already improved his defense, as you might have noticed in the Worlds. But the one thing I love about him is he never takes a possession off. That's what distinguishes him (and Kobe, for that matter) from LeBron. Westbrook is also worth a mention, because of his fine play in the Worlds, though I still believe that the Thunder should've offered him to the Hornets for Chris Paul.

5. San Antonio Spurs. This could very well be Tim Duncan's last season as an All-Star. We saw shades of his old self last season, but the decline was evident. He couldn't dominate Amare as he did 2-3 seasons ago. But he did play particularly well against the Mavs in the first round. So it's a glass half-full/half-empty thing. But with his age, you gotta go with half-empty. But still, I think he's a top-5 big man in the league (behind Dwight, Dirk, Pau, but not Bosh). New recruit Tiago Splitter, along with 2nd year forward Blair, would definitely relieve some pressure off Timmy. Manu and Tony are still there, and if they can avoid injury and get back to their All-Star level, then maybe, just maybe, the window is still open. They'll probably take it easy on the regular season, maybe win 55 games tops, and hopefully turn it on in time for the playoffs. But Richard Jefferson has got to step it up this year.

MVP

Chris Paul. I'm gonna go against the trend here. The popular picks are obviously Durant, Kobe, and LeBron. But I've got a feeling that CP3 will be at his best this season. It was an off-year for him last year because of the injuries. But with all the talk about his buddy Deron Williams overtaking him as the best point guard in the NBA, I think he'll respond big time. I honestly think he's one of the few guys in the NBA with the competitive DNA of Michael Jordan (Kobe is one, maybe Durant). Two things, though: first, can he stay healthy? Second, can the Hornets win enough games? Can't win the MVP without at least making the playoffs. The magic number for him and the Hornets is 54. In the past decade, that's the least number of games that the team of the MVP winner has won (Steve Nash, 2006 Suns). Or maybe we could lower it to 51, 10 games over 0.500, considering that the West is very competitive and that Durant finished 2nd last year despite winning just 50 games. Still, that would seem like quite a stretch for a team with a borderline All-Star (David West) and a bunch of decent, but not great, players (Ariza, Belinelli, an aging Peja). But you never know. Memphis, Oklahoma, and Milwaukee all surprised us last year, so there's always a chance.

Honorable mentions:

Kevin Durant. Realistically, this is the guy I would put my money on. He already led the league in scoring last year and was 2nd in the MVP balloting. Yet he has somehow managed to take his game to another level in the World Championships. It's scary just thinking about his ceiling. If the Thunder win 60 games this season, then he's a lock for the MVP. It wouldn't hurt to bump up those assist numbers, too.

LeBron James. The 2-time reigning MVP and still the best player in the planet. But playing with a fellow top-5 player is definitely a major voter deterrent. Just ask Shaq--that's why he only won one Maurice Podoloff trophy during all those title runs with Kobe. Voter fatigue would definitely play a factor, too. Same reason why Michael Jordan only has 5, when he should've had at least 7. Plus, LeBron's not quite the media darling he was pre-Decision, so that comes into play as well. For me, there are only two ways LeBron can win the MVP this year. One is by averaging a triple-double for the season. It's only been done once (by Oscar Robertson), so if he could do actually do it, then all the aforementioned factors goes to the trash bin. The other is by leading the league in both scoring and assists. It's almost as rare as a season triple-double, having been only done twice before (by the Big O and Nate Archibald).

Rookie of the Year

As good as John Wall is, I think Blake Griffin is the best rookie this year. Why? He scores, he rebounds, he blocks shots. He's your prototypical power forward in the mold of Tim Duncan, only more athletic. He's already polished offensively, so he can contribute immediately. He's quite a hustle player as well, and goes after the ball ala Dennis Rodman. He was a double-double machine during his college days, once scoring 40 points and grabbing 23 boards in a single game. He's probably around Amare-level right now but with better defense.

Back to John Wall for a bit. I think he'll be better than Derrick Rose. I think he's got better athleticism and better court vision.

Most Improved Player

Michael Beasley. He's been impressive in the pre-season and I think this would carry over to the regular season. Many basketball analysts have already given up on him, saying that he doesn't have the tools to live up to his billing as a number 2 pick, that he doesn't play defense, doesn't have a mid- to long-range game, has poor shot selection, that he's lazy, etc. But I think he never really had the chance to shine in Miami because of how Wade dominates the ball. I think Beasley is that type of player who needs the ball in his hands to make something happen. And he could do just that in Minny. He's their guy. And I think he'll respond. I see him averaging 20-22 points per, along with 8 boards.

Honorable mention:

Raymond Felton. I think he'll blossom under Mike D'Antoni's system. He was solid last year but had to share minutes with Bobcats-favorite DJ Augustin (only 33 minutes per game). Now, he's the undoubted starter for the Knicks. He has a very shaky--but nonetheless improving--jumpshot, but he's got good court vision, which is always an intangible asset for a point guard under D'Antoni. He got owned by Jameer Nelson in last year's playoffs but I think he'll surpass Jameer this year.

Tensai's Watchlist

Darko Milicic. 7 years have passed and I'm still hoping. I might be the only one left on the bandwagon. The primary reason is he's still only 25. We saw the potential being realized in 2006-07 with the Orlando Magic, forming a good partnership with Dwight. I think he had several double-doubles in the playoff series against the Bulls. But then the Magic decided that they'd rather go with Rashard than Darko (which is actually a good move for them, but not for Darko). Now, that's what I call arrested development. But he did play well when he arrived in Minnesota last year, rejuvenated by the new lease in his basketball career. With the departure of Al Jefferson, he'll be their starting center this season. More reasons why I still believe in Darko: (1) he's an above average defensive player--such an underrated shotblocker; (2) he's got good footwork on the low block. Don't believe me? Just watch videos of his post moves. I think the area that needs most improvement is his jumpshot. He should be able to stroke it from 15 as well as Vlade and Sabonis did. My (dream) statline for him for the season: 14 ppg, 11 rpg, 3 bpg.

Linas Kleiza. Euro Barkley! Spending a season in Europe definitely helped his game. He's able to make plays now rather than being simply a scorer. You could see it in the way he played for Lithuania. Equally impressive is how he embraced the leadership role in his national team. Now, he'll have plenty of opportunity in Toronto, unlike in Denver when he had to play behind Carmelo. Watching him play alongside Bargnani should be quite interesting.

NBA Champions

As I've said earlier, there's a void inside me this year, so I'm not really keen on picking who'll win the championship. Maybe I'd like to see the Spurs have one last run at it. But one thing I'm picking is who won't win: the Lakers.

LeBron: Greatest Letdown Of All-Time

It's another dark day for basketball. It's like watching Anakin turn into Darth Vader but worse--cos we all knew that was going to happen, but not this one. I'm sure casual fans--the same ones who cheered for the Lakers last June--are ecstatic. Why? Cos they don't know a tad about basketball. They don't understand that having LBJ and Wade together means that we'll be deprived of LBJ vs. Wade. Basketball is all about big rivalries. Russell-Chamberlain. Magic-Bird. Jordan-everyone else. The decision is bad for the game. Only one word to describe it, really: Cowardice.

Saying that winning a championship is the main reason is utter bull. For crying out loud, LeBron's only 25. MJ didn't win his first until he was 28. LBJ would have gotten his chances. And lest we forget, Cleveland had the best record the past 2 years; it wasn't as if the Cavs were whipping boys in the league. And what about Chicago? That would've been more acceptable. A young All-Star guard, two tough big men and several quality role players. I've always said that championship-wise--no, dynasty-wise--it's the place to go. And then he chose Miami. Yes, they'll have 3 superstars in Miami; but then what? They have no cap space to sign any more quality players. It's gonna be the Big Three + 9 minimum salary guys. Does anyone really think that would be enough? Hell no. They'll make the playoffs, maybe even win a series or two, but I doubt they'll even make it to the finals. And how do you distribute scoring? Who's gonna be the alpha dog? Ooops, I already know the answer. LeBron's not alpha dog material.

I think this decision would go down as the worst free agent move of all-time. LBJ has been blinded by the high premium placed on the number of championships. MJ is partly to blame due to his success and popularity in the 90's. Casual fans are likewise guilty, because they equate number of championships with greatness. It's all about quantity for them. But true hoops fans know that it's about quality. That's what made MJ so great. He built his own championship team in Chicago. He was the unquestioned leader of the Bulls dynasty. The fact that it took him 7 years to finally bring them over the hump only made it sweeter. And that's why Kobe, even if he wins his 6th next year, will never be equal to MJ; cos he was on Shaq's team the first three rings around. And so even if the Heat wins 7 titles during their run, it would never mean as much had LeBron won it in Cleveland. He took the easy way out. He quit. Now, he's on the team of the 2006 NBA Finals MVP. As Broussard wrote last week, 4 championships in Cleveland would have put him close to MJ as G.O.A.T., considering the talent-level of the Cavs' roster. The number of rings doesn't define greatness. Of course, you have to win a couple but it's not all about the sheer number. Bill Russell had 5 more than MJ but we all know who's the greatest. Wayne Gretzky only had 4 Stanley Cup titles while others have 8-11, yet he's still considered the greatest. Johnny Unitas is regarded as the best QB of all-time despite winning just one Super Bowl. So the rings=greatness equation is a fallacy. And so "the decision" is actually "the mistake." All that discussion about G.O.A.T. would have to be flushed down the toilet. Jordan's Air Apparent isn't playing in the NBA yet.

Which brings me to my next point, LeBron has now become the Greatest Letdown of All-Time (G.L.O.A.T.). How a candidate for G.O.A.T. turns into G.L.O.A.T., no one knows. Ask LeBron. I've been raving about LeBron since 2002, during his junior year in high school (right, Roy?). I even have his Slam mag cover (with Telfair). This guy was simply the next Michael Jordan. Check out his stats from his first 2 seasons and compare it with MJ's last 2 with the Wiz, and you'll see the similarities--I even thought that LeBron's career would be MJ's backwards. His 2006 playoff debut against Washington justified the comparison. His superior athleticism during the series reminded me of how MJ was circa 63-point Boston Garden game. 2007 Game 5 against Detroit. "The Shot" in Game 2 against Orlando last year. Damn, we were all witnesses. Then there's the stats. Easily 30-5-5, even more. Reminiscent of MJ. Hollinger's player efficiency rating even proved it; best in the league since Mike. This kid had all the tools. And then he chose to be on Wade's team. LBJ chickened out when greatness looked him in the eye. He let us down with the Lebacle. He let us down by not joining the slam dunk contest. He let us down by choosing to be Robin rather than Batman. Imagine if Jack did not take on the role of being the Island's protector. Letdown. Or imagine Tiger Woods. Major letdown. The decision is the complete anti-thesis of MJ's "I'm back" announcement in 1995. The saddest part is we might never see that kind of talent again in our lifetime. My generation was fortunate to have Jordan. But for my brother, LeBron was the closest thing. No matter what he does in Miami, no matter how many championships he wins, it wouldn't change the fact that he copped out. He would never live up to what he could've been. In the process, he deprived us of the chance to watch a great career unravel. The chance to tell our grandkids how we witnessed the birth and rise of a legend. I was planning to watch a LeBron game at least once in my life. Not anymore.

Perhaps the worst part of it is that I believed. Even with the Lebacle back in May, I was still a LeBron guy. It was simply the elbow. It was simply bad coaching. When Bill Simmons wrote about LBJ not having MJ's competitive DNA, I kinda half-believed it. But then I remembered the Detroit game in 2007. So I convinced myself that it's just the elbow. It had to be. Fast-forward to today. It turns out Simmons was right (which I know he kind of wishes he wasn't). Jordan never teamed up with Barkley or Drexler or Malone or Ewing. Jordan decimated those guys. And he enjoyed every single moment of it (even up to the point of his Hall enshrinement). LeBron's decision affirmed that he didn't have the MJ DNA. That the Lebacle was not because of the bad elbow. It was simply LeBron being LeBron. Dr. J 2.0. Grant Hill without the injuries (except that GH wouldn't stab his home team on the back; more on that later). That the Detroit game was the exception rather than the norm. I suddenly had a flashback of Game 6 versus Orlando in 2009. He didn't want to shoot the ball in that game, too. Damn, I was blinded by all the stats, by Hollinger's PER. Well, stats lie. Turns out LeBron is more Pippen than Jordan; now he's going to be a glorified Pippen to Wade's poor man's Jordan. Simmons (http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons%2F100708) summed it up perfectly, "In May, after the Cavs were ousted in the conference semifinals, I wrote that LeBron was facing one of the greatest sports decisions ever: winning (Chicago), loyalty (Cleveland) or a chance at immortality (New York). I never thought he would pick 'HELP!'"

And it's not just the decision. It's the way he announced it. A one-hour show on ESPN. What for? To break the hearts of Cleveland fans. It's the single cruelest thing a sports athlete could do to his former team. It's worse than Bett Favre going to Minnesota and torching the Packers--at least Favre had a reason to; Green Bay didn't want him. But everyone in Cleveland loved LeBron and wanted him to stay. This announcement was a calculated way of stabbing Cleveland in the heart. In law school parlance, it was attended by the aggravating circumstance of alevosia (treachery). Unforgivable. I had this conversation with my Ateneo friends during a simposio back in June (mostly LBJ-haters, by the way; and Laker-haters, too), and Jek was telling me what an ass LeBron has become. I was a staunch LBJ defender then. Not anymore. This is betrayal at its most sadistic. Calculated. Premeditated. Selfish. Narcissistic. It's utterly disgusting.

His penultimate game as a Cav (the Lebacle) and this decision would define LeBron's career. Total letdown. His place in basketball Valhalla has been sealed. He can't escape the fact that he shirked his date with greatness--no matter how many titles, no matter how many MVPs, not even if he averages a triple-double for a season. He'll be right there with Dr. J, maybe with Oscar. But never with Mike. Never with Bill and Wilt. Never with Magic and Larry. Heck, not even with Kobe.