Hot Ticket

With the UAAP Finals about to tip off in a couple of minutes, I just want to give my two cents' worth. First off, people (guys from Hard Ball, in particular) are always saying that UE is the hottest team in the league right now. A fallacy. UE has won 8 straight. Ateneo has won 11 consecutive. So how do you define "hottest"? Second, people keep bringing back the ghost of 2006, when Ateneo, then the #1 seed, lost to the #3 seed UST. They say that Ateneo was a heavy favorite then. I beg to differ. The 2006 team was good, but it was not dominant. I admit that I was surprised that Ateneo performed very well that season. Be reminded that that team lost to UST in the 2nd round; so the Finals defeat wasn't a rabbit out of the hat. The King Eagles were JC Intal, Doug Kramer, and Macky Escalona. Not exactly legends in college hoops. Meanwhile, UST, although denominated as underdogs, were talent-laden, with Jervy Cruz, Jojo Duncil, and Dylan Ababou, which also featured a solid supporting cast. So call it an upset if you like, but the teams were more closely matched than pundits would have it. On the other hand, this year's Blue Eagles have dominated the league. Discounting that fluke loss to UP (which they avenged with a blowout), nobody has even come close--except for La Salle in their first round meeting. But then again, in every Ateneo-La Salle, you throw out the season stats. Ateneo already drubbed UE twice this season, with the second round margin being wider than the score suggests. The Blue Eagles have superb offense, anchored by Al-Hussaini, Salamat, and Buenafe (this guy, as Luigi Trillo says, is a big-game player), all of whom can create for themselves. Then there's the perimeter shooting of Jai Reyes and Eman Monfort They've got great defense, with Baclao in the post, plus Salamat and Long in perimeter. The bench is deep, too, with Salva, Buenafe, and Monfort playing the roles of super-subs. So c'mon guys, don't make too much fuzz about it. Don't fall into "analysis paralysis." We all know how it'll turn out. Ateneo will sweep UE in the Finals.

Game 1 will be close though. UE is on an emotional high, no doubt about that. This will carry them through most parts of the opener. But they are undermatched, both in size and talent. So once the emotions wane--which will, come 4th quarter--the difference will be apparent. Ateneo's experience will overcome UE's emotions. So my prediction? Ateneo by 5.

As for Game 2, well, after a heart-breaking defeat in the first game, I expect UE to come out flat. It's going to be a blow out. At least 15 points. An anti-climactic end to an anti-climactic season. That's how it is, at least for me, all because of that loss to UP, which took away 15-0 in 150.